11.30am, 7 October
The tenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season – Tropical Storm Jerry – has formed in the central tropical Atlantic.
It is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane within the next 24 hours before tracking toward the northern Leeward Islands.
In its 11am forecast, the National Hurricane Center reported that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour and is moving quickly west at 24mph.
Tropical-storm-force winds are extending outward up to 140 miles from the centre.
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The centre predicts the storm will become a hurricane by 8pm on Wednesday and travel north of the Leeward Islands around 8am on Friday.
Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Anguilla is within the forecast cone of uncertainty – the area that shows where the centre of the storm could track in the coming days.
“Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry as Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or tonight,” the hurricane centre said.
9am, 7 October
An area of low pressure tracking in the direction of Anguilla is highly likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next 48 hours, according to weather forecasters.
In its 8am forecast, the National Hurricane Center reported that showers and thunderstorms in association with the weather system are becoming better organised.
“If these trends continue advisories are likely to be initiated on a tropical depression later today,” the centre said.
The system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday.
The National Hurricane Center said that interests there – including in Anguilla – should monitor the progress of the system.
It added that there is a 90% chance of a tropical depression forming within 48 hours.
In a Facebook post on 6 October, Anguilla’s Department of Disaster Management said: “Stay tuned for updates, and ensure your hurricane plans are in place.”
Earlier updates:
8.30am, 6 October
A low altitude tropical wave travelling across the Atlantic is likely to develop into a tropical depression within the next few days, according to weather experts.
In its 8am forecast, the National Hurricane Center reported that a broad area of low pressure is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms.
The weather system is moving “quickly” west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic and is expected to approach the northern Leeward Islands in the latter part of this week.
“Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days,” the forecast read.
The National Hurricane Center said that interests there – including in Anguilla – should monitor the progress of the system.
It added that there is a 50% chance of a tropical depression forming within 48 hours, increasing to 70% over the next seven days.
In a Facebook post on 5 October, Anguilla’s Department of Disaster Management said: “Anguilla remains in the cone of uncertainty; residents should continue to monitor the approach of this system.”
The Department of Disaster Management advises the public stay connected through its official WhatsApp channel. Click here for more information.
Information on how to prepare for a hurricane is available from the US National Weather Service here.
A list and map of hurricane shelter locations can be found on the Anguilla Red Cross site here.
